The freight market in January 2026 is not recovering. It is not crashing. It is doing something more difficult to navigate: sending conflicting signals simultaneously.
The Cass Freight Index has now declined for 35 consecutive months—longer than during the 2008 financial crisis. Yet tender rejections have surged above 13%, the highest since April 2022, pushing freight onto spot markets with sudden rate spikes. Ocean rates from Asia are dropping double digits while trucking capacity quietly tightens.
This is not a market that rewards conviction. It rewards adaptability.
For US shippers, logistics managers, and 3PL buyers, the winning strategy is not to predict what happens next. It is to build an operating system that performs regardless of what happens next. This article introduces The Adaptability Stack—a framework for routing, procurement, fraud controls, and cold-chain readiness that you can implement this week.
What "Cautious Stabilization" Really Means
Industry analysts are labeling January 2026 a period of "cautious stabilization." The term sounds reassuring. It is not.
Cautious stabilization means the market has stopped its freefall but has not found solid ground. Volumes have leveled off without rebounding. Rates have compressed without collapsing entirely. Carriers are surviving but not thriving.
For shippers, this creates a planning paradox. Contract rates may look stable, but spot volatility can spike without warning when tender rejections climb. Ocean savings are real—but they can evaporate if you are locked into contracts signed during tighter conditions.
The practical implication: static annual plans are a liability. Quarterly—or even monthly—procurement reviews are now baseline hygiene.
The Conflicting Signals
Cass Freight Index
Consecutive decline—longer than the 2008 crisis. Structural slowdown in US shipping activity.
Tender Rejections
Highest since April 2022. Carriers rejecting contracted freight, pushing loads to spot markets.
Ocean Rates Asia→US
Carrier rate hike attempts "largely failed." Window for importers—but not permanent.
Trucking Capacity
Class 8 builds depressed. Driver pool shrinking from FMCSA CDL crackdowns.
Reefer Freight
Cold-chain logistics outperforming. Temperature-controlled capacity at premium.
Freight Fraud
CA, NY, TX, IL most targeted. Organized theft rings more sophisticated.
Cass Freight Index: 35 Months of Decline
The Cass Freight Index, a widely tracked measure of North American shipping expenditures, has now posted 35 consecutive months of year-over-year decline. This exceeds the duration of the 2008 recession's freight contraction.
This is not a dip. It is a structural slowdown in US shipping activity, driven by inventory destocking, softer consumer goods demand, and modal shifts.
Tender Rejections and Spot Market Spikes
Contradicting the Cass decline, tender rejections surged above 13% in January—the highest reading since April 2022. When carriers reject contracted freight, it pushes loads onto spot markets where rates spike unpredictably.
For shippers, this means contracted capacity is not guaranteed capacity. Backup carrier relationships and spot-market monitoring are essential.
Ocean Freight Rates: Asia to US Dropping
Ocean freight rates from Asia to the US West Coast have dropped approximately 12%, with East Coast lanes down around 11%. Carrier attempts to implement rate hikes have "largely failed" according to industry reporting.
For importers, this is a window—but not a permanent one. Build in contract flexibility to capture current rates without overcommitting to volumes you may not need.
Trucking Capacity Tightening
The US trucking industry handles approximately 72% of domestic freight across a $906 billion market. Despite soft demand, capacity is tightening:
- Class 8 truck builds remain depressed, limiting fleet expansion.
- The qualified driver pool is shrinking as FMCSA CDL crackdowns remove underqualified or non-compliant drivers from the road.
This creates a delayed-reaction scenario: when demand does return, capacity will not be there to meet it instantly.
Reefer Freight: The Outlier
Cold-chain freight—"reefer"—continues to show strong demand. Temperature-controlled logistics for pharmaceuticals, produce, and perishables remains a bright spot.
For shippers with cold-chain needs, this means reefer capacity should be secured earlier in procurement cycles. It also means reefer-capable carriers have pricing power that dry van carriers currently lack.
Freight Fraud and Theft: Direct Thefts Rising
Freight fraud is not just persistent—it is evolving. Direct thefts now account for approximately 50% of stolen loads, up significantly as organized theft rings become more sophisticated.
The most targeted states are California, New York, Texas, and Illinois. High-value and easy-to-resell goods (electronics, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods) carry the highest risk.
Fraud controls are no longer optional. They are a cost-of-doing-business line item.
The Adaptability Stack: A Framework for Volatility
Checklist
0 of 13 completeWhat to Do Next
If You Are a Shipper
- Audit your tender acceptance rates over the past 90 days. If rejections are climbing, your contracted capacity is eroding.
- Build backup carrier relationships for your highest-volume lanes before you need them.
- Review ocean contracts for flexibility clauses—current rate drops may not last.
- Elevate fraud prevention from a security concern to a procurement criterion.
If You Are a Carrier or 3PL
- Monitor driver compliance closely—FMCSA crackdowns are removing capacity from the market, which benefits compliant operators.
- Invest in reefer capabilities if you have the capital. Cold-chain demand is outpacing dry van.
- Differentiate on reliability, not just price. Shippers are willing to pay premiums for carriers who do not reject tenders.
- Document fraud-prevention protocols as a sales asset. Shippers are asking.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources
- FreightWaves (January 2026 coverage)
- C.H. Robinson (January 2026 market commentary)
- Freightos (January 2026 rate analysis)
- Ryder (January 2026 industry outlook)
- ACT Research (Class 8 production data)
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional logistics, legal, or financial advice. Market conditions change rapidly; verify current data before making procurement or operational decisions.
Sarah Lindberg
International Operations Lead
Sarah coordinates our global partner network across 160+ countries, ensuring seamless cross-border debt recovery.
